31--8.2国际经济学双语讲稿

Pl Amongthe factorsthat makeinternational economicsa distinctsubject is theexistence ofdifferent nationalmonetary unitsof account.In the United States,pricesand moneyare measuredin termsof the dollar,whereas the RMB representsChinasunit of account.|批注［李1］使国际经济学成为一门独特学科的因素之一Before Chinaimporters canpurchase commoditiesfrom U.S.exporters,they must是不同国家货币记账单位的存在在美国，物价和货币是first purchasedollars tomeet theirinternational obligation.Some institutional用美元来衡量的，而人民币是中国的计价单位arrangements arerequired thatprovide anefficient mechanismwhereby monetaryclaimscan besettled witha minimumof inconvenienceto bothparties.Such amechanismexists in the formof the foreign exchange market.In thissection,we willexaminethe natureand operationof thismarket.批注［李2］:中国进口商在向美国出口商购买商品之前，必P2The foreign exchange marketrefers to the organizationalsetting within which须首先购买美元，以履行其国际义务所以我们需要做出individuals,businesses,governments,and banksbuy and sell foreigncurrencies and一些体制安排，提供一种有效的机制，使货币需求能够在other debtinstruments.Only asmall fractionof dailytransactions inforeign exchange对双方造成最少不便的情况下得到满足这种机制是以外actually involve the tradingof currency.Most foreign exchange transactionsinvolvethe汇市场的形式存在的在这一部分，我们将研究这个市场transfer ofelectronic balancesbetween commercialbanks orforeign exchangedealers.的性质和运作The foreign exchange market is byfar the largest andmost liquidmarket in the world.The foreign exchange marketis dominatedby fourcurrencies:the U.S.dollar,the批注［李3］:外汇市场是指个人、企业、政府和银行买卖外euro,the Japaneseyen,and the British pound.Three of thelargestforeign exchange汇和其他债务工具的一种组织安排在外汇的日常交易中，markets in the worldare locatedin London,New York,and Tokyo.实际上只有一小部分涉及现金交易大多数外汇交易涉及P3A typicalforeign exchange market functionsat threelevels:first,in transactions商业银行或外汇经纪人之间的电子余额交易between commercialbanks and their commercialcustomers who are theultimate批注［李4］:外汇市场是目前世界上最大、最具流动性的市demanders andsuppliers of foreign exchange;second,inthedomestic interbankmarket场外汇市场中最主要的四种货币是:美元、欧元、日元和conducted throughbrokers;andthethird,in activetrading inforeign exchangewith英镑世界上最大的三个外汇市场位于伦敦、纽约和东京banks overseas.By far;most ofcurrency tradingis based on speculationinwhichtraders purchase批注［李5］:一个典型的外汇市场可分为三个层次:一是商andsellfor short-term gainsbasedonminute-to-minute,hour-to-houi;and day-to-day业银行与其商业客户之间的交易，商业客户是外汇的最终price fluctuations.Estimates arethat speculation accounts forabout90percent of the需求者和供应者二是在国内银行间市场通过经纪人进行交daily tradingactivity intheforeignexchange market.易;三是与境外银行间的外汇交投活跃交易P4Most dailynewspapers publishforeignexchange rates formajor currencies.The批注［李6］:到目前为止，大多数的外汇交易都是基于投机，exchange rateis theprice ofone currencyin termsof another;for example,the number即交易者根据每分钟、每小时和每天的价格波动进行买卖of RMByuan required to purchase1U.S.dollar$.In shorthand notation,ER equals to以获取短期收益据估计，投机活动约占外汇市场每日交yuan perdollar;where ERisthe exchange rate.If ERequalsto6,then Zpurchasingone易活动的90%odollar willrequire6yuan.批注［李刀:大多数报刊都会刊登主要货币的汇率汇率是An exchange rate determinedby free market forcescan anddoes changefrequently.一种货币以另一种货币表示的价格，例如，购买一美元$When theRMB price of dollarincreases,for example,from6yuan adollar to7yuan a需要人民币的数量简记为，ER=¥/$,ER表示人民币兑美dollar,theRMBhas depreciatedrelative to the U.S.dollar.Currency depreciation元的汇率如果ER等于6,那么购买1美元需要6元means thatit takesmore unitsof anations currency to purchase a unit of some foreigncurrency.批注［李8］:通常，汇率由自由市场力量决定且经常变动，P5Conversely,Currency appreciationmeans thatit takesfewer unitsof anations当美元的人民币价格上升时，例如，从6元人民币一美元currencytopurchaseaunitofsomeforeigncurrency.到7元人民币一美元，人民币相对于美元贬值货币贬值Most tablesof exchange rate quotationsexpress currencyvalues relativeto theU.S.意味着一国需要更多的货币单位来购买某种外币dollar,regardless of the countrywhere thequote isprovided.So,the exchange批注［李9］:相反，货币升值意味着一个国家用更少的货币单位来购买某种外币neither anexcess supplynor anexcess demand for pounds.rate betweenany twocurrencies canbe derivedfrom therates ofsometwo currenciesin termsofathird currencyfor examplethe dollar.The本节课关于汇率和汇率决定的内容就讲到这里，感谢观看resulting rateis calledthe crossexchange rate.批注［李io］大多数汇率报价都用相对于美元的货币价值P6What determinesthe equilibriumexchange rate in a freemarketLet usconsider表示，而不管报价是由哪个国家提供的任意两种货币之间the exchangerate fromthe perspectiveofthe United States,that is,in dollarsper unit的汇率可以由这两种货币与第三种货币（例如美元）之间的of foreigncurrency.Like otherprices,theexchangerateinafreemarketis determined汇率得出由此产生的汇率称为交叉汇率by bothsupply anddemand conditions.批注［李1口什么决定了自由市场中的均衡汇率我们从A nationsdemand forforeignexchangeis aderived demand;driven byforeigner美国的角度来分析汇率问题，即每单位外币的美元价格和demand fordomestic goods and assetssuch asbank accounts,stocks,bonds,and real其他价格一样，自由市场的汇率是由供求条件决定的property.It correspondstothedebit itemsonacountrys balanceof payments.The U.S.demand forpounds maystem fromits desireto importBritish goodsand services,tomake investments in Britain,or tomake transferpayments toresidents inBritain.Likemost demandschedules,theU.S.demandforpounds variesinversely withits price.P7FIGURE

8.1frhis relationis depictedby demandline Din Figure

8.

1.As thedollar批注［李12］:一个国家对外汇的需求是一种派生需求，受depreciates against the pound,that is,thedollarprice ofthe poundraises,British goods外国人对国内商品和资产（如银行账目、股票、债券和房地and servicesbecome moreexpensive to U.S.importers.This isbecause moredollars are产）需求的驱动它对应一个国家国际收支平衡表上的借方requiredtopurchase eachpound neededto financethe import purchases.The higher项目美国对英镑的需求可能源于其对进口英国商品和服务、exchangeratereduces thenumber ofimports bought,lowering thenumber of pounds在英国投资或向英国居民转移支付的意愿与大多数需求一demanded byU.S.residents.In likemanner;an appreciationoftheU.S.dollar relativeto样，美国对英镑的需求与价格成反比the poundwould beexpected toinduce largerimportpurchasesand more poundsdemanded byU.S.residents.P8+P7FIGURE

8.1The supplyofforeignexchange referstotheamount offoreign批注［李13］:图

8.1中的需求线D描述了这种（反向）关exchange thatwill beoffered tothe marketat variousexchange rates,all otherfactors系随着美元对英镑贬值，也就是说，英镑的美元价格上升，held constant.The supplyof pounds,for example,is generatedby thedesire ofBritish英国的商品和服务对美国进口商来说变得更加昂贵这是因residents andbusinesses toimport U.S.goodsandservices,lend fundsand make为进口商品所需的每一英磅都需要花费更多的美元较高的investmentsintheUnitedStates,repay debtsowed toU.S.lenders,and extendtransfer汇率降低了进口商品的购买量，降低了美国居民对英镑的需payments toU.S.residents.In eachof thesecases,the Britishoffer poundsinthe求同样，美元兑英镑升值也会促使美国扩大进口，增加美foreignexchangemarket toobtain thedollars theyneed tomake paymentstoU.S.国居民对英镑的需求residents.批注［李14］:外汇供给是指在其他因素保持不变的情况下，The supplyof poundsis denotedby lineS inFigure

8.

1.The schedulerepresents the在各种不同汇率下向市场提供的外汇数量例如，英国居民number ofpounds offeredby the British toobtain dollarswith whichto buyU.S.goods,和企业希望进口美国商品和服务，或向美国提供贷款和投资，services,and assets.It isdepicted inthe figureas apositive functionoftheU.S.或偿还欠美国贷款机构的债务，又或者向美国居民提供转移exchangerate.As thedollar depreciatesagainstthepound,theBritishwill beinclined to支付，从而产生了英镑的供应在每一种情况下，英国都在buy moreU.S.goods.The reason,of course,is that at higherdollar pricesofpounds,the外汇市场上提供英镑，以获取支付给美国居民所需的美元British canget moreU.S.dollars andhence moreU.S.goods perBritish pound.Americangoods becomecheaper totheBritishwhoareinduced topurchase additionalquantities.批注［李15］:英镑的供给用图

8.1中的行S表示该曲线As aresult,morepoundsare offeredintheforeignexchangemarket tobuy dollarsto表示英国为获得美元而提供的用于购买美国商品、服务和资pay U.S.exporters.产的英镑数量如图所示，它是美元汇率的一个正函数随As longas monetaryauthorities donot attemptto stabilizeexchange ratesor着美元对英镑贬值，英国人将倾向于购买更多的美国商品moderate theirmovements,the equilibriumexchangerateisdeterminedby themarket当然，原因是在英镑的美元价格较高的情况下，英国人可以forces ofsupply anddemand.In Figure

8.1,exchangemarketequilibrium occursat point用每一英镑换取更多的美元，因此得到更多的美国商品美E,where Sand Dintersect.Three billionpounds willbe tradedatapriceof2dollar per国商品对英国人来说变得便宜所以英国人会购买更多因此，pound.The foreignexchangemarketis preciselycleared,leaving为购买更多美兀来支付给美国出口商，外汇市场供给更多的批注[李16]:只要货币当局不试图固定汇率或缓和汇率的波动，均衡汇率就由市英镑场供求关系决定在图

8.1中，外汇市场均衡发生在S和D的交点E市场均衡o数量为30亿英镑，均衡价格为每磅2美元外汇市场出清，既没有英镑的过剩供给，也没有过剩需求。