23--6.2国际经济学双语讲稿

P2In thelast section,we haveintroduced thetrade policiesof developed countriesby takingthe UnitedStates asan example.Compared withdevelopedcountries,developing countriesface thecentral problemof economic development whenformulatingeconomic andtrade policies.批注［李1］在上一部分，我们以美国为例介绍了发达国家In theroughly30years sincethe secondworld war,many developing countries的贸易政策与发达国家相比，发展中国家在制定经贸政策have beeninfluenced bythe notionthat thekey toeconomicdevelopmentlies inhaving时面临的核心问题是经济发展a strongmanufacturing industry,and thatthe bestway togenerate strongmanufacturingis toprotect domestic manufacturers from international competition.The correspondingpolicy iscalled import substitution tradestrategy

1.批注［李2］:在二战后大约30年的时间里，许多发展中国P3During the1950s and1960s,the industrializationstrategy ofimport substitution家一直受到这样一种观念的影响，即经济发展的关键在于拥became popularin developing nations suchas Argentina,Brazil,and Mexico;some有强大的制造业，而产生强大制造业的最佳途径是保护国内nations stilluse ittoday.Import substitutioninvolves extensiveuse of trade barriersto制造商免受国际竞争相应的政策称为“进口替代贸易战protect domestic industries fromimport competition.The strategy is inwardoriented in略”that trade and industrialincentives favorproduction forthe domestic market overtheexport market.If fertilizerimports occur,import substitutioncalls forestablishment ofa批注［李3］:在1950年代和1960年代期间，进口替代的domestic fertilizerindustry to produce replacementsfor fertilizerimports.In the工业化战略在阿根廷、巴西和墨西哥等发展中国家流行起来;extreme,import substitutionpolicies couldlead tocomplete self-sufficiency.一些国家至今仍在使用它进口替代涉及广泛使用贸易壁垒，P4The rationalefor import substitution arisesfrom thedeveloping nations;以保护国内产业免受进口商品竞争这一战略是“内向型”perspective ontrade.Many developing nations feelthat they cannot export的，因为贸易和工业激励有利于国内市场的生产，而不是出manufactured goodsbecause theycannot compete with establishedfirms of the口市场比如，如果想要替代肥料的进口，则需要建立一个advanced nations,especially inview of the hightrade barriersmaintained byadvanced国内肥料工业来生产进口肥料的替代品（而不是努力生产本nations.Given theneed foreconomic growthand development,developingnations国具有比较优势的出口产品）have nochoice butto manufacturefor themselvessome ofthe goodsthey nowimport.批注［李勺支持进口替代的理由来自发展中国家对贸易的The useoftraderestrictions blockimports and the domesticmarket isreserved for看法许多发展中国家认为，它们不能出口制成品，因为它domestic manufacturers.This rationaleis oftencombined withthe infant-industry们无法与发达国家的老牌公司竞争，特别是考虑到发达国家argument,that is,protecting startup industrieswill allowthem to grow toa sizewhere维持着很高的贸易壁垒由于经济增长和发展的需要，发展theycancompetewiththe industriesof advancednations.中国家别无选择，只能自己制造一些它们现在进口的货物P5But economistsgenerally thinkthat itmay bemore costlytoproduceitdomestically andcheaper toimport it;comparative advantageshould decidewhich贸易限制的使用阻碍了进口，因此国内市场留给了国内制造goods areimported andwhich areexported.There areseveral disadvantagesfor import商这种理论通常与“幼稚产业理论”的观点相结合，也就substitution tradestrategy asfollows:是说，应保护新兴产业,直到它们发展到能够与发达国家的First ofall,because traderestrictions shelterdomesticindustriesfrominternational产业竞争的规模competition,they haveno incentiveto increasetheir efficiency.批注［李5］:但经济学家普遍认为，在国内生产可能成本更Secondly,given thesmall sizeofthedomesticmarket in many developingnations,高，进口可能更便宜;哪些商品进口、哪些出口应由比较优manufacturers cannottake advantageof economies of scaleand thushave highunit势决定进口替代贸易战略存在以下几个不足首先，国内costs.产业由于受到贸易限制的保护而免受国际竞争，因此它们没Thirdly,because theresources employedin theprotected industrywould有提高效率的动机otherwise havebeen employedelsewhere;protection ofimport-competing producers其次，由于许多发展中国家的国内市场规模较小，制造商automatically discriminatesagainst allother industries,including potentialexporting无法利用规模经济，因此单位成本较高ones.第三，因为在受保护工业中使用的资源本来可以用于其他Fourthly,once investmentis sunkin activitiesthat wereprofitable onlybecause of地方;保护与进口竞争的生产者会自动歧视所有其他行业，tariffs andquotas,any attemptto removethose restrictionsis generallystrongly包括潜在的出口行业resisted.第四，一旦投资只因为关税和配额而启利可图的活动,任何And thelast,import substitutionalso breedscorruption.取消这些限制的企图一般都受到强烈抵制P6During the1970s,criticisms ofimportsubstitutionindustrialization becameincreasinglycommon.Empirical studiesappeared tosuggest thatdevelopingcountries批注[李6]:最后，进口替代还容易滋生腐败that adoptedfreer tradepolicies tendedtogrowfaster thanthose thatadoptedprotectionist policies.Therefore,many developingcountries removedquotas anddecreasedtariffs bythe mid-1980s.Another developmentstrategyisexport led growth,or export-oriented policy.This strategyis outwardoriented becauseit linksthe domesticeconomyto the world economy.Instead ofpursuing growththrough theprotection ofdomesticindustries sufferingcomparative disadvantage,the strategyinvolves promotinggrowththrough theexport ofmanufactured goods.Trade controlsare eithernonexistentor low,in thesense thatany disincentivesto exportresulting fromimport批注[李7]:20世纪70年代，对进口替代工业化的批评日barriers arecounterbalanced byexport subsidies.Industrialization isviewed asa natural益普遍经验研究似乎表明，采取自由贸易政策的发展中国outcome ofdevelopment insteadof beingan objectivepursued atthe expenseofthe家往往比采取保护主义政策的发展中国家增长更快因此，economys efficiency.By themid-1980s,manydevelopingnations wereabandoning许多发展中国家在1980年代中期取消了配额并降低了关税their importsubstitution strategies and shiftingtheir emphasisto exportled growth.另一项发展战略是通过出口带动增长，即出口导向战略这P7Export oriented policies havethree advantages:firstly,they encourage一战略是“外向型”的，因为它将国内经济与世界经济联系industries inwhich developingnations arelikely tohave acomparative advantage,such起来该战略不是通过保护处于相对不利地位的国内工业来as labor-intensive manufacturedgoods;secondly,by providinga largermarketinwhich谋求增长，而是通过制成品出口来促进增长这种战略下的to sell,they allowdomesticmanufacturersgreater scopefor exploitingeconomiesof贸易管制要么不存在，要么很低，因为进口壁垒对出口的任scale;andthethird,by maintaininglow restrictionson importedgoods,they imposea何抑制都会被出口补贴抵消工业化被视为发展的自然结果，competitive disciplineon domesticfirms thatforces themto increaseefficiency.P8Economists atthe World Bank haveinvestigated therelation betweenopenness而不是以牺牲经济效率为代价追求的目标到1980年代中期，许多发展中国家正在放弃其进口替代战略，并将重点转to internationaltradeandeconomic growthfor developingnations.They divideda向出口导向战略sample of72nations into“globalizers andnonglobalizers/The globalizersare definedasthe24nations thatachieved thelargest increasesin theirratio oftrade togross批注[李8]:出口导向战略有三个优点:第一，它鼓励发展中domestic productfrom1975to

1995.During the1960sand1970s,the nonglobalizers国家可能具有比较优势的产业，如劳动密集型制成品;其次，experienced somewhatfaster growthof realincome percapita onaverage thanthe通过提供更大的面向国际的销售市场，它们使国内制造商globalizers.However,during the1980s,globalizers experiencedmuch highergrowth有更大的空间来利用规模经济;第三,通过保持对进口商品的rates.These findingssupport theconcept thatthe economicperformance of nations低限制，它们对国内企业施加了竞争压力，迫使它们提高效implementing exportledgrowthpolicies hasbeen superiorto thatofnationsusing率importsubstitutionpolicies.批注[李9]:世界银行WorldBank的经济学家研究了发展中P9China isa primeexample ofsuccessful export-orientedpolicies.In theearly国家对国际贸易的开放程度与经济增长之间的关系他们将1970s,the PeoplesRepublic ofChina wasan insignificantparticipant intheworld72个国家分为全球化国家和非全球化国家全球化国家的定market forgoods andfinancial services.By2017,China hadgrown tobe theworlds义是，从1975年到1995年，贸易与国内生产总值GDP之second largesteconomy,with anational outputover twothirds ofthe UnitedStates and比增长最大的24个国家在20世纪60年代和70年代,非全three timesas manyas Japans.球化国家的人均实际收入的平均增长略快于全球化国家然关于发展中国家贸易政策的问题就讲到这里，感谢观看而，在20世纪80年代，全球化国家经历了更高的增长率这些研究结果支持以下观点:实施出口拉动型增长政策的国家的经济表现优于实施进口替代政策的国家批注[李10]:中国是成功实施出口导向型政策的典型例子上世纪70年代初，中国在世界商品和金融服务市场上是一个无足轻重的参与者到2017年，中国已经成为世界第一大经济体，国民生产总值超过美国的三分之二，是日本的三倍。