财务风险管理译文.

毕业设计（论文）译文经济管理系会计学专业名学号___________________________起讫日期设计地点东南大学师____________________师_____________________二一六年五月十四日0财务风险管理出处［美］卡伦・A•霍契.《什么是财务风险管理？》.《财务风险管理要点》.约翰.威立国际出版公司，2005:Pl-

22.摘要尽管近年来金融风险大大增加，但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题全球市场越来越多的问题是，风险可能来自几千英里以外的与这些事件无关的国外市场意味着需要的信息可以在瞬间得到，而其后的市场反应，很快就发生了经济气候和市场可能会快速影响外汇汇率变化、利率及大宗商品价格，交易对手会迅速成为一个问题因此，重要的一点是要确保金融风险是可以被识别并且管理得当的准备是风险管理工作的一个关键组成部份什么是风险？风险给机会提供了基础风险和暴露的条款让它们在含义上有了细微的差别风险是指有损失的可能性，而暴露是可能的损失，尽管他们通常可以互换风险起因是由于暴露金融市场的暴露影响大多数机构，包括直接或者间接的影响当一个组织的金融市场暴露，有损失的可能性，但也是一个获利或者利润的机会金融市场的暴露可以提供战略性或者竞争性的利益风险损失的可能性事件来自如市场价格的变化事件发生的可能性很小，但这可能导致损失率很高，特殊麻烦，因为他们往往比预想的要严重得多换句话说，可能就是变异的风险回报由于它并不总是可能的，或者能满意地把风险消除，在决定如何管理它中了解它是很重要的一步识别暴露和风险形式的基础需要相应的财务风险管理策略财务风险是如何产生的呢？无数金融性质的交易包括销售和采购，投资和贷款，以及其他各种业务活动，产生了财务风险它可以浮现在合法的交易中，新项目中，兼并和收购中，债务融资中，能源部份的成本中，或者通过管理的活动，利益相关者，竞争者，外国政府，或者天气浮现当金融的价格变化很大，它可以增加成本，降低财政收入，或者影响其他有不利影响的盈利能力的组织金融波动可能使人们难以规划和预算商品和服务的价格，并分配资金有三种金融风险的主要来源

1、金融风险起因于组织所暴露出来的市场价格的变化，如利率、汇率、和大宗商品价格

2、引起金融风险的行为有与其他组织的交易如供应商、客户，和对方在金融衍生产品中的交易

3、由于内部行动或者失败的组织，特殊是人、过程和系统所造成的金融风险什么是财务风险管理？财务风险管理是用来处理金融市场中不确定的事情的它涉及到一个组织所面临的评估和组织的发展战略、内部管理的优先事项和当政策一致时的财务风险企业积极应对金融风险可以使企业成为一个具有竞争优势的组织它还确保管理，业务人员，利益相关者，董事会董事在对风险的关键问题达成协议金融风险管理组织就必须作出那些不被接受的有关风险的决定那些被动不采取行动的战略是在默认情况下接受所有的风险组织使用各种策略和产品来管理金融风险重要的是要了解这些产品和战略方面，通过工作来减少该组织内的风险承受能力和目标范围内的风险风险管理的策略往往涉及衍生工具在金融机构和有组织的交易所，衍生物广泛地进行交易衍生工具的合约的价值，如期货，远期，期权和掉期，是源自相关资产的价格衍生物利用利率，汇率，商品，股票和固定收入的证券，信贷，甚至是天气进行交易这些产品和市场参预者使用策略来管理金融风险，与由投机者用来提高风险的杠杆作用是相同虽然可以认为，衍生工具的广泛使用增加了风险，衍生品的存在使那些希翼通过把它传递给那些寻求风险及相关机会的人降低了风险估计财务损失的可能性是非常令人满意的然而，概率标准的理论往往在金融市场的分析中不合用风险通常不会孤立存在的，通常会和几个风险的相互作用，必须认真考虑在发展中国家的金融风险是如何产生的有时，这些相互作用是很难预测的，因为它们最终取决于人的行为金融风险管理是一个持续不断的过程随着市场需求的变化和完善，战略必须得到执行有关的修改反映不断变化的市场利率，变化的预期营商环境，或者例如不断变化的国际政治条件普通来说，这个过程可以概括如下

1、识别并优先考虑关键的财务风险

2、确定适当的风险容忍程度

3、按照政策实施风险管理战略

4、按需要衡量，报告，监控和改进多样化多年来，公司资产的风险评价的可变性仅仅基于其回报与此形成对照的是，现代投资组合理论不仅考虑了一项资产的风险，而且是经济体总体风险的组合由于风险多样化，组织可以有机会来降低风险在投资组合管理方面，在一定限度内给个别部件组合提供了多样化的机会一个多元化的资产组合中包含的回报是不同的，换句话说，彼此之间的关系是弱或者负面的考虑到一个投资组合的风险是非常实用的，并且应考虑改变或者增加的潜在风险的总数多样化是一个管理金融风险的重要工具通过预设的组织，对手之间的多样化可以减少突发事件对组织所造成的不利影响而引起的风险其中投资资产多元化减少了发行人失败的损失程度多样化的客户、供应商和金融来源减少了一个组织的贸易被外面变化控制的负面影响的可能性虽然损失的风险仍然存在，多样化的机会可以减少大的不良结果风险管理过程金融风险管理过程中的战略使一个组织去管理与金融相关的风险市场风险管理是一个动态过程，应逐步发展成一个组织和它的生意它涉及和影响了许多方面，包括国债，销售，营销，法律，税务，商品组织和企业融资风险管理过程包括内部和外部份析该进程的第一部份包括确定和罗列金融机构面临的风险和了解其相关性有必要审查该组织及其产品，管理，客户，供应商，竞争对手，价格，行业的发展趋势，资产负债结构，并在行业中的地位也有必要考虑利益相关者和他们的目标和风险承受能力一旦清晰地了解这些风险的浮现，就可实施适当的策略会同风险管理政策例如，有可能改变的地方，从而减少该组织的暴露和风险此外，可能对现有的衍生工具进行风险管理另一种经营战略风险是接受所有的风险和损失的可能性有三个广泛的风险管理办法

1、什么都不做，在默认情况下，积极或者被动地接受一切风险

2、对冲一部份，通过确定那些可以而且应该进行对冲的风险

3、所有可能的风险对冲风险的计量和报告提供给决策者与信息执行者决定和监测的结果，在它的前面和后面都采取策略来减轻由于风险管理进程仍在进行，报告和反馈可以用来精化系统的修改或者改进策略体系活跃的决策过程是风险管理的重要组成部份讨论潜在的损失和为降低风险的决策提供了一个讨论重要问题与各种关于利益相关者的观点的场所财务比率的影响因素和价格财务比率及价格受多项因素的影响关键是要了解影响市场的因素，因为这些因素，反过来影响到一个组织的潜在风险影响利率的因素利率是许多市场价格的主要组成部份和重要的经济晴雨表它们是由真实利率加之通货膨胀的预期成份组成的，因为通货膨胀降低了贷款人的资产购买力离到期日越近，它的不确定性就越大利率也是资金的供给和需求和信贷风险的反射利率对企业和政府来说是非常重要的，因为他们是资金成本的关键因素大多数公司和政府债务融资需要扩展和基建项目当利率增加，对借款人有显著的影响利率也影响到其他金融市场的价格，所以他们的影响是深远的对利率的其他组件可能包括一个风险溢价，以反映借款人的信用例如，政治或者主权风险的威胁可能导致利率上升，有时很大，因为随着投资者需求的增加,额外的补偿违约风险也会增加影响市场利率水平的因素包括

1、通货膨胀的预期水平

2、总体经济状况

3、货币政策和央行的立场

4、外汇市场活动

5、外国投资者对债务证券化的需求

6、外债突出的水平

2005.What IsFinancial RiskManagement^.Essentials ofFinancialRisk Management,John WileySons,lnc.pp.1-

22.Abstract Althoughfinancial riskhas increasedsignificantly inrecent years,risk and riskmanagement are not contemporaryissues.The resultof increasinglyglobal marketsis thatriskmay originatewith eventsthousands ofmiles awaythat havenothing todo withthe domesticmarket.Information is available instantaneously,which meansthat change,and subsequentmarketreactions,occur veryquickly.The economicclimate andmarkets can be affectedveryquickly by changes inexchange rates,interest rates,and commodityprices.Counterparties canrapidlybecome problematic.As a result,it isimportant toensure financial risks areidentified andmanagedappropriately.Preparation isa key component of risk management.What IsRiskRisk providesthe basisfor opportunity.The termsrisk andexposure havesubtledifferences in their meaning.Risk refersto theprobability of loss,while exposureis thepossibilityof loss,although they are oftenused interchangeably.Risk arisesas a result ofexposure.Exposure tofinancial marketsaffects mostorganizations,either directlyor indirectly.Whenan organizationhas financialmarket exposure,there isa possibilityoflossbut alsoanopportunity forgain orprofit.Financial marketexposure mayprovide strategicor competitivebenefits.Risk isthe likelihoodof lossesresulting fromevents such as changesin market prices.Events with a lowprobability ofoccurring,but thatmay resultin ahigh loss,are particularlytroublesomebecause theyare oftennot anticipated.Put anotherway,risk isthe probablevariabilityof returns.Since it is notalways possibleor desirableto eliminaterisk,understanding it is animportantstep indetermining howto manageit.Identifying exposuresand risksformsthe basisfor anappropriate financial risk management strategy.How DoesFinancial RiskFinancialrisk arisesthrough countlesstransactions of a financialnature,including salesandpurchases,investments andloans,and variousother businessactivities.It canarise as aresult oflegal transactions,new projects,mergers and acquisitions,debt financing,the energycomponentof costs,or throughthe activitiesof management,stakeholders,competitors,foreigngovernments,or weather.When financialprices changedramatically,it canincrease costs,reduce revenues,or otherwiseadversely impact the profitabilityof an organization.Financialfluctuations maymake itmore difficultto planand budget,price goodsand services,andallocate capital.There arethree mainsources of financial risk:

1.Financial risksarising froman organization,s exposureintmacrlkaet^isces,such asinterestrates,exchange rates,and commodityprices.

2.Financial risksarising from the actionsof,and transactionswith,other organizationssuch asvendors,customers,and counterpartiesin derivativestransactions

3.Financial risksresulting frominternal actionsor failuresof the organization,particularlypeople,processes,and systemsWhatIsFinancialRisk ManagementFinancialrisk managementisaprocess todeal withthe uncertaintiesresulting fromfinancial markets.It involvesassessing thefinancial risksfacing an organization anddevelopingmanagement strategiesconsistent withinternal prioritiesand policies.Addressing financial risksproactively mayprovide an organization witha competitiveadvantage.It alsoensures thatmanagement,operational staff,stakeholders,and theboard ofdirectors arein agreementonkey issuesof risk.Managing financialrisk necessitatesmaking organizationaldecisions aboutrisks thatareacceptable versusthose thatarenot.The passivestrategy oftaking noaction isthe acceptanceof all risksby default.Organizations managefinancialriskusing avariety ofstrategies andproducts.It isimportant to understand how theseproducts and strategies workto reduce risk within thecontext of theorganizatioIne加3objectives.Strategies forrisk managementoften involvederivatives.Derivatives aretraded widelyamongfinancial institutionsand onorganized exchanges.The valueof derivativescontracts,suchasfutures,forwards,options,and swaps,is derivedfromtheprice of the underlyingasset.Derivatives tradeon interest rates,exchange rates,commodities,equity andfixed incomesecurities,credit,and evenweather.The productsandstrategiesused bymarket participantsto managefinancialriskare thesameones usedby speculatorsto increaseleverage andrisk.Although itcan beargued thatwidespreaduse of derivatives increasesrisk,the existenceofderivativesenables thosewhowish to reduceriskto passit alongto thosewho seekrisk and its associatedopportunities.The abilityto estimatethe likelihoodofafinancial lossis highlydesirable.However,standard theoriesof probabilityoften failin theanalysis of financialmarkets.Risks usuallydo notexistin isolation,and theinteractions ofseveral exposuresmay haveto beconsidered indevelopingan understandingof howfinancialriskarises.Sometimes,these interactionsaredifficult toforecast,since theyultimately dependon humanbehavior.The processoffinancialrisk managementis anongoing one.Strategies needto beimplementedand refinedas themarket andrequirements change.Refinements mayreflectchanging expectationsabout marketrates,changes to the businessenvironment,or changinginternationalpolitical conditions,for example.In general,the processcan besummarized asfollows:

1、Identify andprioritize keyfinancial risks.

2、Determine anappropriate level of risktolerance.、3Implement risk managementstrategyin accordancewith policy.、4Measure,report,monitor,and refineas needed.DiversificationFor manyyears,the riskiness of anasset wasassessed basedonly on the variabilityof itsreturns.In contrast,modern portfoliotheory considersnot onlyan assetsriskiness,but alsoitscontribution tothe overallriskinessof the portfolioto whichitisadded.Organizations mayhave anopportunitytoreducerisk asaresultof riskdiversification.In portfoliomanagement terms,the additionof individualcomponents toa portfolioprovidesopportunities fordiversification,within limits.A diversifiedportfolio containsassetswhose returnsare dissimilar,in otherwords,weakly ornegatively correlatedwith oneanother.Itis usefulto thinkof theexposures ofanorganizationasaportfolio andconsider the impact ofchangesor additionsonthepotential risk of thetotal.Diversification is an importanttool inmanaging financial risks.Diversification amongcounterpartiesmay reduce the riskthat unexpectedevents adverselyimpact the organizationthrough defaults.Diversification amonginvestment assetsreduces themagnitude ofloss ifoneissuer fails.Diversification ofcustomers,suppliers,and financingsources reducesthe possibilitythatanorganizationwill haveits businessadversely affected bychangesoutside managementscontrol.Although theriskofloss stillexists,diversification mayreducetheopportunity forlarge adverseoutcomes.RiskManagementProcessThe processoffinancialrisk managementcomprises strategiesthat enableanorganization tomanage therisks associatedwith financialmarkets.Risk managementis adynamicprocess thatshould evolvewith anorganization andits business.It involvesandimpacts manyparts ofanorganizationincluding treasury,sales,marketing,legal,tax,commodity,and corporatefinance.The riskmanagement process involves bothinternal andexternal analysis.The firstpart oftheprocessinvolvesidentifying andprioritizing thefinancialrisksfacing anorganization andunderstandingtheir relevance.It may be necessaryto examinetheorganizationanditsproducts,management,customers,suppliers,competitors,pricing,industry trends,balance sheetstructure,and positionintheindustry.It isalso necessaryto considerstakeholders and theirobjectives andtolerance forrisk.Once aclear understandingoftherisks emerges,appropriate strategiescan beimplementedin conjunctionwith riskmanagement policy.For example,it mightbe possibletochange whereandhowbusiness isdone,thereby reducingthe organizationsexposure andrisk.Alternatively,existing exposuresmaybemanaged withderivatives.Another strategyformanaging riskis toaccept allrisks and the possibilityof losses.There arethree broadalternatives formanaging risk:

1.Do nothingand actively,or passivelyby default,accept allrisks.

2.Hedge aportion ofexposures bydetermining whichexposures canand shouldbe hedged.

3.Hedge allexposures possible.Measurement andreporting ofrisks providesdecision makerswith informationto executedecisionsand monitoroutcomes,both beforeand afterstrategies aretaken tomitigate them.Since theriskmanagementprocess isongoing,reporting andfeedback canbe usedto refinethesystem bymodifying orimproving strategies.An activedecision-making processisanimportant componentofriskmanagement.Decisions aboutpotential lossandriskreduction providea forumfor discussionof importantissuesandthevarying perspectivesof stakeholders.Factors thatImpact FinancialRates andPricesFinancial rates and pricesare affectedby anumber offactors.It isessential tounderstandthe factorsthat impactmarkets becausethose factors,in turn,impactthepotential riskof anorganization.Factors thatAffect InterestRatesInterest ratesare akeycomponentin manymarketpricesand animportant economicbarometer.They arecomprised ofthe realrate plusa componentfor expectedinflation,sinceinflation reducesthe purchasingpower ofa lendersassets.The greaterthe term to maturity,thegreater theuncertainty.Interest ratesare alsoreflective ofsupply anddemand forfunds andcreditrisk.Interest ratesare particularlyimportanttocompanies and governments becausetheyarethekey ingredientinthecost ofcapital.Most companiesandgovernmentsrequire debtfinancing forexpansionand capitalprojects.When interest rates increase,theimpactcanbesignificant onborrowers.Interest ratesalso affectprices inother financialmarkets,so theirimpact isfar-reaching.Other componentstothe interestratemay includea riskpremium toreflect thecreditworthinessofa borrower.For example,the threatof politicalor sovereignrisk cancauseinterest ratesto rise,sometimes substantially,as investorsdemand additionalcompensation fortheincreased riskof default.Factors thatinfluence thelevel ofmarket interest rates include:

1、Expected levelsof inflation

2、General economicconditions

3、Monetary policyandthestance ofthe centralbank

4、Foreign exchangemarket activity

5、Foreign investordemand fordebt securities

6、Levels ofsovereign debtoutstanding

7、Financial andpolitical stabilityYieldCurveThe yield curve isa graphicalrepresentation ofyields fora rangeof terms to maturity.Forexample,a yield curve mightillustrate yieldsfor maturityfrom oneday overnightto30-yearterms.Typically,the ratesare zerocoupon governmentrates.Since currentinterestratesreflect expectations,the yield curve providesuseful informationaboutthe marketsexpectations of future interestrates.Implied interestrates forforward-startingterms canbe calculatedusing theinformation inthe yieldcurve.For example,using ratesforone-and two-year maturities,the expectedone-year interestrate beginningin oneyears timecan bedetermined.The shapeoftheyieldcurveis widelyanalyzed andmonitored bymarket participants.As agaugeof expectations,itisoften consideredto bea predictoroffutureeconomic activityandmay providesignals ofa pendingchange ineconomic fundamentals.The yieldcurve normallyslopes upwardwithapositive slope,as lenders/investors demandhigherrates fromborrowers for longer lendingterms.Since thechance ofaborrowerdefaultincreases withtermtomaturity,lenders demandtobe compensatedaccordingly.Interest ratesthat makeup theyieldcurveare alsoaffectedbythe expectedrate ofinflation.Investors demandat leastthe expectedrate ofinflation fromborrowers,in additiontolending andrisk components.If investorsexpect futureinflation tobe higher,they willdemandgreater premiumsforlonger termstocompensate forthis uncertainty.As aresult,the longertheterm,the highertheinterestrate allelse beingequal,resulting in an upward-sloping yieldcurve.Occasionally,the demand for short-term fundsincreases substantially,and short-terminterest ratesmay riseabove theleveloflongerterminterestrates.This resultsinaninversion oftheyieldcurveandadownward slopeto itsappearance.The highcost ofshort-term fundsdetractsfrom gainsthat wouldotherwise beobtained throughinvestment andexpansion andmakethe economyvulnerable toslowdown orrecession.Eventually,rising interestrates slowthedemandforboth short-term andlong-term funds.A declinein allratesanda returnto anormalcurve mayoccur asaresultoftheslowdown.。